Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4008
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4008 · DAL → AUS
departs 4:06 PM CT · arrives 5:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.11 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.