Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4018 · ELP → LAX
departs 5:21 PM MT · arrives 6:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
ELP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.