Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4020 · HNL → BUR
departs 1:36 PM HT · arrives 9:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from HNL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.