Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4021 · SNA → SMF
departs 4:08 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.