Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 402 · PLS → MCO
departs 3:26 PM EDT · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PLS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PLS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.