Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4040 · LAS → PSP
departs 7:36 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at PSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PSP?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.