Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4071
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4071 · MCO → STL
departs 7:31 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.