Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4103 · ALB → MCO
departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ALB
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.