Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4129 · STL → TPA
departs 10:01 AM CT · arrives 1:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.