Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4130 · HOU → SAT
departs 11:11 AM CT · arrives 12:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.