Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4154 · BNA → PHX
departs 8:21 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at PHX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.