Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 417 · SAN → PDX
departs 4:56 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.