Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4212 · PHX → BNA
departs 6:51 PM MT · arrives 12:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.