Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4230 · HOU → ELP
departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ELP that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.