Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 424 · BNA → DEN
departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 9:57 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.