Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4255
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4255 · SAN → SBA
departs 2:13 PM PT · arrives 3:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SBA that day
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
SBA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,433 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.