Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4265
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4265 · BNA → TUL
departs 8:08 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.