Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4271
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 4271 · SAN → SMF
departs 3:58 PM PT · arrives 5:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.