Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 437
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 437 · MCI → SMF
departs 4:36 PM CT · arrives 6:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,567 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.07 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.