Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4382 · AUS → SFO
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.