Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4390
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4390 · DEN → BUR
departs 7:30 PM MT · arrives 9:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 37%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 26%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.