Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4420 · LAS → SAN
departs 7:46 PM PT · arrives 9:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±8 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.