Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4431 · LAS → BUR
departs 7:36 PM PT · arrives 8:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.