Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4445 · ONT → OAK
departs 2:21 PM PT · arrives 3:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ONT are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,933 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.