Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 445 · BDL → MCO
departs 5:22 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.