Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4476 · BUR → LAS
departs 5:21 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 29%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.