Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4499 · LAS → OMA
departs 5:36 PM PT · arrives 10:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±4 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.