Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4535
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4535 · PIT → SRQ
departs 1:36 PM ET · arrives 4:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
SRQ is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SRQ at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.