Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4540 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

WN 4540 · LAS → SAT

departs 5:46 PM PT · arrives 10:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4540 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?