Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4557 · DAL → MCO
departs 7:32 PM CT · arrives 11:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 30%
Thu 11/5 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.