Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4678 · DEN → SAT
departs 5:01 PM MT · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.