Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4686 · HOU → SAN
departs 7:44 PM CT · arrives 9:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.11 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.