Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4691 · LAS → IND
departs 5:42 PM PT · arrives 12:19 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 26%
Thu 11/5 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.