Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4720 · MDW → PWM
departs 4:11 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM
↓
MDW is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.