Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4730 · BNA → ABQ
departs 12:28 PM CT · arrives 2:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.