Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 4736 · BOI → PHX
departs 4:52 PM MT · arrives 6:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 11/3 37%
Wed 11/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.