Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4749
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4749 · JAX → DEN
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from JAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JAX that day
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.