Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4778 · BNA → CLE
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 6:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.