Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4790 · HOU → STL
departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 27%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at HOU that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.