Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4795 · LAS → MKE
departs 6:43 PM PT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.