Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4861 · PHX → MKE
departs 6:50 PM MT · arrives 12:13 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/2 42%
Tue 11/3 39%
Wed 11/4 34%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.