Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4897
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4897 · MCO → MCI
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,567 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.