Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4898
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4898 · MCO → MEM
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 8:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 31%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 833 ft forecast at MEM that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.