Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4909
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4909 · PHX → OMA
departs 6:46 PM MT · arrives 11:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.