Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4974 · HOU → MCO
departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 5:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.