Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4982
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4982 · LAS → SFO
departs 7:46 PM PT · arrives 9:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±10 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.