Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4991 · MCO → LAX
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.