Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 509 · DAL → MDW
departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.