Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 527 · TPA → PIT
departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.