Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 534 · AUS → TPA
departs 6:18 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 35%
Wed 11/4 42%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4.33333 mi Precip 0.04 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.